Some interesting events have occurred
that aren’t covered elsewhere, some across multiple sports. Here are the
probabilities related to those events. Several of these have been calculated,
but there are more to come.
Throughout
this page, P(X) is shorthand for the probability of X occurring.
Pirates Finish Under 0.500 for
20 Straight Seasons From 1993-2012 (0.0000003334)
The
Pittsburgh Pirates failed to have a winning percentage of 0.500 or better for 20
straight seasons. For each season we need to calculate the probability of
finishing under 0.500. In that time span, the Pirates played 162 games 14
times, 161 games 4 times and 144 games and 114 games once
each. These translate to P(<0.500) of 0.4687,
0.5000, 0.4668 and 0.4627, respectively. Therefore the
probability of finishing under 0.500 all 20 seasons is:
0.468714
* 0.50004 * 0.4668 * 0.4627 = 0.0000003334
Buffalo Bills Lose 4 Straight
Super Bowls (0.000001625)
The
Buffalo Bills lost four straight Super Bowls from 1990-1993. The probability of
making it to the Super Bowl and losing each of those years was 0.03571. Therefore the probability of losing all four of those Super
Bowls is
0.035714
= 0.000001625.
Cleveland Sports Teams Combine
for 143 Seasons Over 52 Years Without a Championship (0.004153)
The
Cleveland Browns won the NFL championship in 1964, and the Cleveland Cavaliers
won the NBA Finals in 2016. Between those championships, the Philadelphia Cavaliers,
Indians and Browns went a combined 143 team-seasons without winning a
championship. The table below lists each team's probability of winning a
championship in every season during that span.
To
calculate the probability of this championship drought occurring, we first
calculate the probability that each team does not win the championship in a given season, 1 − P(championship).
We
then multiply those probabilities together across all 143 team-seasons.
The resulting product is the probability that none of the four Philadelphia
teams wins a championship during the entire period. Using this method, the
probability of the 98-season championship drought is 0.004153.
|
Season |
Cavaliers |
Indians |
Browns |
|
1964 |
|
|
Won NFL Champ |
|
1965 |
no team |
0.05000 |
0.07143 |
|
1966 |
no team |
0.05000 |
0.03125 |
|
1967 |
no team |
0.05000 |
0.03125 |
|
1968 |
no team |
0.05000 |
0.03125 |
|
1969 |
no team |
0.04167 |
0.03125 |
|
1970 |
no team |
0.04167 |
0.04030 |
|
1971 |
0.06250 |
0.04167 |
0.04030 |
|
1972 |
0.06250 |
0.04167 |
0.04030 |
|
1973 |
0.06250 |
0.04167 |
0.04030 |
|
1974 |
0.06250 |
0.04167 |
0.04030 |
|
1975 |
0.05390 |
0.04167 |
0.04030 |
|
1976 |
0.05390 |
0.04167 |
0.04030 |
|
1977 |
0.04398 |
0.03571 |
0.03923 |
|
1978 |
0.04398 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1979 |
0.04398 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1980 |
0.04398 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1981 |
0.04398 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1982 |
0.04398 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
|
1983 |
0.04398 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1984 |
0.04546 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1985 |
0.04546 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1986 |
0.04546 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1987 |
0.04546 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1988 |
0.04546 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1989 |
0.04167 |
0.03571 |
0.03908 |
|
1990 |
0.03845 |
0.03571 |
0.03537 |
|
1991 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
0.03537 |
|
1992 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
0.03537 |
|
1993 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
0.03537 |
|
1994 |
0.03571 |
no WS |
0.03537 |
|
1995 |
0.03571 |
0.03436 |
0.03333 |
|
1996 |
0.00781 |
0.03436 |
no team |
|
1997 |
0.03332 |
0.03436 |
no team |
|
1998 |
0.03332 |
0.03436 |
no team |
|
1999 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03113 |
|
2000 |
0.03332 |
0.03436 |
0.03113 |
|
2001 |
0.03332 |
0.03436 |
0.03113 |
|
2002 |
0.03332 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2003 |
0.03332 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2004 |
0.03332 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2005 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2006 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2007 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2008 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2009 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2010 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2011 |
0.03333 |
0.03436 |
0.03125 |
|
2012 |
0.03333 |
0.03409 |
0.03125 |
|
2013 |
0.03333 |
0.03333 |
0.03125 |
|
2014 |
0.03333 |
0.03333 |
0.03125 |
|
2015 |
0.03333 |
0.03333 |
0.03125 |
|
2016 |
Won Finals |
|
|
Philadelphia Sports Teams
Combine for 98 Seasons Over 25 Years Without a Championship (0.02770)
The
Philadelphia 76ers won the NBA Finals in 1983, and the Philadelphia Phillies
won the World Series in 2008. Between those championships, the Philadelphia
Flyers, 76ers, Phillies, and Eagles went a combined 98 team-seasons without winning
a championship. The table below lists each team's probability of winning a
championship in every season during that span.
To
calculate the probability of this championship drought occurring, we first
calculate the probability that each team does not win the championship in a given season, 1 − P(championship).
We
then multiply those probabilities together across all 98 team-seasons. The
resulting product is the probability that none of the four Philadelphia teams
wins a championship during the entire period. Using this method, the
probability of the 98-season championship drought is 0.02770.
|
Season |
Flyers |
76ers |
Phillies |
Eagles |
|
1983 |
|
Won Finals |
0.04167 |
0.03437 |
|
1984 |
0.04167 |
0.04545 |
0.04167 |
0.03437 |
|
1985 |
0.04167 |
0.04545 |
0.04167 |
0.03437 |
|
1986 |
0.04167 |
0.04545 |
0.04167 |
0.03437 |
|
1987 |
0.04167 |
0.04545 |
0.04167 |
0.03437 |
|
1988 |
0.04167 |
0.04545 |
0.04167 |
0.03437 |
|
1989 |
0.04167 |
0.04167 |
0.04167 |
0.03437 |
|
1990 |
0.04167 |
0.03848 |
0.04167 |
0.03571 |
|
1991 |
0.04167 |
0.03571 |
0.04167 |
0.03571 |
|
1992 |
0.04167 |
0.03571 |
0.04167 |
0.03571 |
|
1993 |
0.04167 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
|
1994 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
no WS |
0.03571 |
|
1995 |
0.03571 |
0.03571 |
0.03436 |
0.03333 |
|
1996 |
0.03846 |
0.00893 |
0.03436 |
0.03333 |
|
1997 |
0.03846 |
0.03335 |
0.03436 |
0.03333 |
|
1998 |
0.03846 |
0.03335 |
0.03242 |
0.03333 |
|
1999 |
0.03563 |
0.03334 |
0.03242 |
0.03333 |
|
2000 |
0.03333 |
0.03335 |
0.03242 |
0.03333 |
|
2001 |
0.03333 |
0.03335 |
0.03242 |
0.03333 |
|
2002 |
0.03333 |
0.03335 |
0.03242 |
0.03125 |
|
2003 |
0.03333 |
0.03335 |
0.03242 |
0.03125 |
|
2004 |
0.03333 |
0.03335 |
0.03242 |
0.03125 |
|
2005 |
no season |
0.03333 |
0.03242 |
0.03125 |
|
2006 |
0.03333 |
0.03333 |
0.03242 |
0.03125 |
|
2007 |
0.03333 |
0.03333 |
0.03242 |
0.03125 |
|
2008 |
0.03333 |
0.03333 |
Won WS |
|
San Diego Has Never Won a
Championship
Boston/New England Teams
Combine for 12 Championships in From 2001-2018 (also
13 from 2001-2024)
Only 9 Different Teams Won NBA
Championships From 1980-2014 (also 8 teams from 1980-2010)
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